The economic calendar is filled with key data beginning Monday with the manufacturing ISM survey, which is one of our top five economic series for investors to follow. While the sector accounts for only around 10% of GDP, manufacturing activity is highly correlated with the economy. The construction spending figures will take a backseat to the manufacturing ISM, but any surprises in the former may impact expectations for Q1 GDP revisions, which are released on May 27.
Throughout the day on Monday, we get April unit motor vehicle sales which are another favorite indicator for market participants . On Wednesday morning we get the April ADP private employment survey. Experts are projecting a 165k increase, which is moderately below the last couple of months. This will be followed by the March international trade balance, which will show a substantial narrowing based on the already-reported drop in the advance international goods trade deficit.
At the same time as international trade, the Bureau of Labor Stadistics will release Q1 productivity, which is poised to contract for the second consecutive quarter. Later on Wednesday morning, we get March factory orders, which should be lifted by a modest rebound in nondurable goods, a function of the recovery in petroleum prices. The non-manufacturing ISM survey is the last of Wednesday’s data releases.
The only data release on Thursday is jobless claims, which are projected to rise slightly from a nearly four-decade low. Friday’s April employment report is the main highlight of the economic data docket this week.