The May jobs report was unwelcome news for the hawks on the Federal Open Market Committee, who were looking for evidence that would validate a June rate hike. Not only was May itself weak, but the large downward revisions in March and April—along with no evidence of accelerating wage inflation—have taken the Fed’s June rate hike off the table. Market now expects one more hike in 2016—at the earliest in September, and possibly later. Next week brings the final productivity report for the first quarter. Productivity will likely be revised up to -0.2%, while unit labor costs remain unchanged at 4.1%.
