Next week’s economic calendar includes some key releases, and we get the July FOMC meeting minutes as well. The highlights are the New York and Philadelphia Fed purchasing manager surveys, the consumer price index and housing starts/permits. We should not expect the upcoming batch of economic data to have any appreciable impact on the near-term economic or monetary policy outlook. Note that Fed Chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech is on Friday, August 26.
According to Deutsche Bank, If monetary policymakers truly believe that the next FOMC meeting is “live”, then Chair Yellen will have to open the door to a rate increase in her Jackson Hole speech. If the Chair were to equivocate on the near-term outlook by hedging her views, the Fed would be unlikely to hike in September but would probably instead prepare the financial markets for a December rate hike.