The three most important events in a modestly busy week are Fed Governor Lael Brainard’s remarks on Monday, retail sales on Thursday and the consumer price index (CPI) on Friday.
Brainard is considered a dove on the FOMC and had been highly cautious with respect to rate hikes this year when she last spoke on June 3. If she sounds hawkish this afternoon, it should increase the probability of a rate hike later this month, according to Deutsche Bank´s economists.
August retail sales are expected to decline slightly on the back of weaker motor vehicles sales, while ex auto sales should be improve marginally. The August headline CPI, due Friday, is poised to rise slightly on the back of modestly higher energy prices. The core CPI is expected to increase by slightly more, mainly due to still-elevated rental costs.
Over the week we will also learn about the New York Fed Empire and Philadelphia Fed surveys, August industrial production and capacity utilization in addition to July business inventories.